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Could Donald Trump lose Texas?

Will 'Build the wall' be Trump's downfall in Texas?


Andrew Couts


Posted on Oct 27, 2016   Updated on May 25, 2021, 5:15 pm CDT

If you’re wondering which direction America will likely swing on Election Day, look no further than Texas. The Lone Star State, long a bright red Republican stronghold, now has a faint hint of blue. 

A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll has Republican Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by just three points. 

The poll shows Trump leading 45 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, held 7 percent support, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trailed with 2 percent. The poll of likely voters has a margin of error of 3.16 percentage points, putting Trump’s lead within the margin of error.

A University of Houston poll released earlier this month also had Trump leading by three points, which is also within the margin of error. According to the Real Clear Politics average, however, Trump leads by 4.7 points and has led by as much as seven points in recent polls. And FiveThirtyEight gives Trump an 82.8 percent chance of winning the state, which holds 38 electoral votes.

Nationally, Clinton is up by 5.4 points in a four-way race, on average, with an 83.8 percent chance of winning the White House. 

Trump’s concerns in Texas are largely due to the state’s Hispanic population—a constituency that heavily opposes Trump—which early voting figures suggest are turning out in higher numbers this year.

Election Day is just 12 days away.

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*First Published: Oct 27, 2016, 9:36 am CDT