There’s a strong argument to be made that Succession is the prestige equivalent of classic soap operas like Dynasty, full of rich people backstabbing each other at expensive parties. That being said, Succession‘s soap opera vibes only go so far.
No one in this show is faking their own death or being two-timed by a secret twin. So why, exactly, are so many viewers convinced that Shiv’s pregnancy will result in an eleventh-hour twist? Does this really seem like the kind of show where we’d see a Jerry Spring-style paternity revelation? Guys, come on! Tom is definitely the father!
Shiv’s secret pregnancy has been hanging over the past four episodes like a dark cloud, adding an extra layer of messiness to her and Tom’s disastrous marriage. Last season, the couple discussed the possibility of having kids, but Shiv rebuffed Tom’s advances, saying, “I don’t want to be your fucking incubator when you’re in prison doing chin-ups.”
Tom avoided prison, but after the season 3 finale, the point was moot. Tom’s betrayal torpedoed their relationship. Then in season 4, shortly after Logan’s death, we learn that Shiv is pregnant. She books a 20-week scan over the phone—and three episodes later, she still hasn’t told anyone else. That includes Tom, who ends episode 7 with a blow-up argument where he tells Shiv she’d make a terrible mother.
Amid all this toxic family drama, I’m fascinated by the fan theories that basically invent an extra conflict from whole cloth. Namely, that Shiv is secretly carrying another man’s child, whether it’s her ex-fling Nate, Greg (lol), or someone we haven’t yet seen. (I’ve also seen several posts theorizing that she’s already miscarried offscreen, or is actually having the baby via surrogate, to which I can only say… Huh??)
With three episodes left to go, a paternity-related twist would be a major departure from Succession‘s usual tone. The fact that it’s being speculated about at all is an interesting sign of the very different ways people consume the show. Because while Succession has famously attracted a crossover audience of Very Online fans who like to make thirst edits of depressed businessmen, the onscreen narrative isn’t really conducive to fandom-style theorizing. This is not Game of Thrones. Reddit isn’t going to “solve” a psychological drama about the fallout from parental abuse.
In Succession, the characters’ emotional arcs are obviously open to interpretation. However, it’s not the kind of show that involves Easter eggs or puzzle-box storytelling or invites viewers to guess the “real villain” based on clues like which characters use iPhone or Android. Plot-wise, what you see is what you get. And with Shiv, there’s no onscreen foreshadowing that she’s pregnant by anyone but Tom.
We don’t see Shiv sleeping with someone else in the correct timeframe. We don’t see her seeking out IVF treatment to become a single parent, or meeting with a surrogate. Plus, on a purely thematic level, it wouldn’t make sense to introduce another character to this subplot just a few episodes from the end of the show.
Every important arc in Succession revolves around the tensions within the Roy family. In Shiv’s case, that currently means her grief for Logan, her professional conflicts with her brothers, and the fact that she’s simultaneously going through a pregnancy and a divorce. It doesn’t need to be more complicated than that.
