Article Lead Image

Photo via Gage Skidmore / Flickr

Here are the odds that Donald Trump will drop out of the presidential race

Can Donald Trump make it through election day?


Alexandra Samuels


America really wants to know whether Donald Trump will drop out of the presidential race—and some are betting on it. 

Although Trump’s campaign chairman said everything was just fine within his campaign, that hasn’t stopped people from predicting the chances that the Republican nominee will stick it out through the general election.

Betfair, a British prediction market, has the Republican Party as holding a 25.8 percent chance to win the president and gives Trump a 24.1 percent chance of becoming president, the New York Times reports. As the Times points out, that 1.7-point gap may mean that some believe Trump will drop out, and GOP leadership will replace him with someone they think is more electable.

On the betting market PredictIt, a fraction of users believe that, by “August 31, 2016, Donald Trump shall publicly announce his withdrawal as the Republican nominee for President of the United States, for any reason other than the death of the candidate.” 

Currently, PredictIt bettors are giving Trump an 8 percent chance of dropping out of the race, while him remaining in the race through election day is the heavy favorite (93 percent).

So, why are we talking about Trump exiting the race? Because some powerful people in the GOP reportedly think we should be.

After Trump went through a tumultuous 48 hours where he told a mother with a crying baby to leave his rally, declined to endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), and, among other things, made allegations that the November election would be “rigged” against him, there were reports that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich were in talks to replace Trump on the presidential ticket, NBC reports.

On Good Morning America Wednesday, ABC’s Jon Karl also discussed the possibility of replacing Trump on the GOP ticket if he were to drop out, Mediaite reports. 

“Senior officials at the party are actively exploring what would happen if Trump dropped out and replaced him on the ballot,” Karl said. “The answer … is they can’t force him out; he would have to go out voluntarily. And it would have to be the 167 members of the RNC through a complicated process to pick a new candidate. And it would have to happen by early September.”

The rumors of a Trump exit were further fueled when Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, misspoke and said he would endorse Ryan for president. 

“Look, I support the speaker, and I know after next week, I’m supporting him as a candidate for president, too,” Manafort said on CBS This Morning, according to Politico. Manafort quickly corrected himself and later said that the idea of Trump dropping out of the race was just a rumor. 

Despite the hopes of many bettors, the RNC ensures that Trump’s name will be on the November ballot. 

“Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party, full-stop,” RNC strategist Sean Spicer told the Hill. “That’s the reality. The rest is just a media-pundit concoction.”

Spicer adds that there is “no chance” that any other GOP candidate will be the on the November ballot. 

As of publication, PredictIt has not responded to our request for comment.

Share this article

*First Published:

The Daily Dot