The recession indicator meme is going strong in 2025 as X users tag trends that are giving early Obama-era vibes with the phrase. In addition to various behaviors designed to save people money, throwbacks to the late 2000s and early 2010s—when the Great Recession left many a newly-graduated Millennial in their parents’ basements—are getting hit with #recessionindicator.
Though there are warning signs, experts are still saying that the U.S. is not officially in a recession. We have yet to hit enough of the actual recession indicators that mark an economic downturn. But these reassurances aren’t doing much to slow the memes.
Are we in a recession?
Despite the acceleration of the recession indicator meme on apps like X and TikTok, expert trackers of economic activity in the U.S. say that we are not experiencing a recession and are unlikely to in the near future. By the metric used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the economy is growing, even if that growth has slowed.
At the same time, some concerning developments could represent cracks in the foundation. Layoffs combined with a low willingness among workers to quit have brought the labor market to a standstill, making it feel impossible for some to get a job. Retail spending is slowing as consumer confidence falters. And, of course, the tariff indecisiveness from the Trump administration is hitting the stock market hard.
Some folks living and working in Las Vegas are even saying that the casinos are dead.
“I live in Vegas, my mom works on the strip, can confirm, sh*t is super dead, and only people here are likely to have booked a while ago, whoever comes for conferences, and even then these people aren’t spending,” writes @cousin_vanko.
This kind of uncertainty can foretell a recession, but the indicators aren’t all there yet.
What are real recession indicators?
The NBER, which is non-profit and nonpartisan, uses six key indicator points to determine whether or not the U.S. is in or heading for a recession:
- Real personal income less transfers
- Non-farm payroll employment
- Employment measured by their household survey
- Real personal consumption expenditure (retail spending)
- Wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes
- Industrial production
According to CBS News, ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollack says four out of these six indicate economic growth rather than recession. Still, she admits that there are some worrying signals.
“Negative consumption is concerning because consumer spending is backbone of U.S. economy,” she said. “And it’s not just that spending fell. Sentiment has fallen, household budgets are squeezed and consumers are more vulnerable to shocks, which has heightened recession fears.”
24 recession indicator memes:
The sheer number of recession indicator meme posts right now certainly speak to those fears. However, it may be a relief to some to know that this meme appeared in 2023 and 2024 as well, and we didn’t hit a recession during those years. Surely, that trend will continue indefinitely. Right?
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@0klahomie Y’all- im aware we’ve been in a recession since 2023. This wasn’t a serious video. Hope this helps!
♬ original sound – 0klahomie
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