Many have speculated that a long primary season could hurt the eventual Republican presidential nominee. Now data gathered by Social Bakers and shared with the Daily Dot shows that could be coming true—at least on Facebook.
All four remaining Republican candidates have seen a drop in Facebook likes in recent weeks. But Social Bakers’ Managing Director Steve Mnich is quick to point out that those numbers are compared to January and February of this year, when all four candidates saw the highest average number of likes during the primary season. All of this, Mnich said, points to the fact that Facebook is still a great way to gauge voter interest and user engagement.
According to the data, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul both hit new highs in January, but those leads began to falter the following month. In January, Romney gained 513,757 likes, more than twice the number he did in December 2011, and more than three times the number he gained in June of that year.
Paul showed similar numbers during the same time period, with 479,693 likes in January, almost twice what he gained in December. Both candidates began to see downward trends the following month.
But while Romney and Paul faltered in February, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingirch had their best months, according to the data released. In February, when both candidates were making the most headlines, Santorum had 400,727 new fans on Facebook; Gingrich gained 412,267.
“SocialBakers’ studies have found that the Facebook community reacts to major news events through a combination of ‘liking’ and ‘sharing content,” asserted Katrina Wong, the company’s vice president of marketing, in regards to the finding.
March, however, revealed a drop in likes for all four Republican candidates. Santorum, who at one time was seen as a conservative alternative to Romney, has fallen the hardest. While last month, Santorum gained more than 400,000 new fans, in March he has only gained 199,309. Romney, on the other hand, is 28,000 fans short of what he gained last month and will likely end March with less than 470,000 new fans.
So what do the numbers mean? Perhaps the excitement seen in January and February, which hosted the first exciting contests of the year, has since faltered. The numbers may also show that Romney is slowly securing his place as the nominee, even if he still doesn’t have the delegates needed.
But more than anything, Mnich and Wong say the numbers show that Facebook, Twitter and other social media sites are still a useful way to gauge the popularity of a candidate.
“Facebook and Twitter’s online community is still very engaged, and continue to use the social networks as a forum to express sentiment, show support and voice perspectives about each of the remaining candidates,” Wong said.
Photo by Gage Skidmore