Polymarket has seized on the war in Ukraine and the growing rift between the Trump administration and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to attract millions of dollars in bets, leading critics to accuse the prediction market site of trafficking in pro-Trump propaganda.
The criticism intensified last Friday after Polymarket posted a bizarre AI-generated image on X depicting Zelensky on his knees in the Oval Office to advertise a new betting market.
“Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Saturday?” the post asked, referring to Friday’s shocking televised meeting during which President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian leader for being—in their view—insufficiently grateful for U.S. support in the war against Russia.
“Should we do a market on if he’s on his knees to do it?” a follow-up post asked.
Polymarket eventually deleted the posts, but not before drawing attention to the site’s recent, intense social media promotion of Ukraine-Russia betting markets that some users believe veers into pro-Kremlin, right-wing content.
“As someone who’s normally pretty friendly and interested in prediction markets, this is ghoulish,” wrote one liberal commentator of Polymarket’s posts. “Like genuinely, what the f*** is wrong with you?”
Polymarket’s X account has posted about Zelensky and the war between Ukraine and Russia on a regular basis since Friday, with some of the content asking provocative questions about the Ukrainian president.
“NEW MARKET: Zelenskyy Impeached Before July?” one post asked, accompanying an unflattering photo of the leader. “Time for him to go?”
“BREAKING: TRUMP TO MEET TODAY ON UKRAINE NEXT STEPS,” a post from Monday morning read, hinting at potential corruption in U.S. assistance to the former Soviet republic. “Odds he decides to audit Ukraine aid are up to 68%. What will he uncover?”
Polymarket has ample reason to bring more eyeballs to its prediction markets on the war in Ukraine.
The site has 43 active betting markets pertaining to the conflict as of Monday afternoon, some of which have attracted millions of dollars in bets.
Nearly $23 million is riding on whether Trump will end the war in his first 90 days in office. Trump long promised on the campaign trail an immediate cessation of hostilities if he won.
Bettors have a further $5 million on whether Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin this spring. And $4 million is in play on whether the two sides will reach a ceasefire in 2025.
New markets based on breaking news are always popping up, too.
Since Zelensky apologized to the American people, but not directly to Trump, in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier after last week’s Oval Office blowup, Polymarket added a market giving Zelensky a few more days to bend the knee.
Not everyone sees the prediction market’s overall strategy, particularly on social media, as a benign way to bet on current events.
“Both polymarket and Kalshi have adopted bizarrely pro Trump social media strategies recently,” opined one self-identified Democrat. “Seems like a dubious brand strategy for a prediction market.”
“‘Neutral’ Polymarket resorting to anti-Ukraine AI slop,” popular liberal commentator Pekka Kallioniemi wrote, noting the site received substantial investment from Founders Fund, the venture capital firm run by hard-right Vance ally Peter Thiel.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has responded to similar criticisms in the past.
“Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day,” Coplan claimed in an X post last October. “We’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source.”
The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story.
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