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Bill Kristol predicts independent candidate, Donald Trump points out he’s always wrong

If politics is a sport, then Trump scored a goal here.


Eric Geller


Published May 30, 2016   Updated May 26, 2021, 4:56 pm CDT

The Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol is almost always wrong.

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The conservative pundit’s predictions are so unbelievably bad that the Washington Post dedicated an entire Style section article to how bad they are. As of late January, he had declared that New York businessman Donald Trump had peaked in the Republican presidential primary no fewer than 11 times.

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Trump secured the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to win the GOP nomination on May 26.

But Kristol—who told the Post that his awful predictions are merely ideas intended to provoke discussion and not truly representative of his real expectations—isn’t giving up yet. On May 29, he tweeted out a major prediction.

If Kristol is correct, it would compound the already bad news for the Republican Party in November.

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An independent candidate—at least, one whom the extremely conservative Kristol considers “impressive”—could siphon off a sizeable number of anti-Trump Republicans who would otherwise swallow their pride and vote for their nominee. If that happens, Trump’s chances of beating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, shrink considerably.

Naturally, Trump took issue—to put it mildly—with Kristol’s prediction.

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As nicknames go, “Dummy Bill Kristol” isn’t Trump’s finest work. But in his first tweet, Trump actually undersells his main charge, that Kristol has been “wrong for 2yrs.” In fact, as has been extensively documented, being wrong is a long-running theme for Kristol.

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*First Published: May 30, 2016, 10:01 am CDT