The Senate Intelligence Committee advanced Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination for Director of National Intelligence this afternoon, 9-8.
And while online prediction markets are certain Gabbard will be confirmed in a full Senate vote, one specific senator’s vote on the matter is the focus of a million dollars of trading.
Many bettors believe one-time Gabbard ally Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will reject her nomination, and they’re dropping big bucks banking on it.
As of Tuesday, traders on the event-based trading platform Polymarket are able to purchase a “yes” share in Gabbard’s confirmation market for 98 cents, implying a 98% chance she will be confirmed. Bettors have staked more than $4.5 million on the vote.
That figure is a near-certainty compared to last week when shares dropped to as low as 43 cents after Gabbard clashed with Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) over her past support for whistleblower Edward Snowden during a testy confirmation hearing.
Young today said he would back Gabbard amid a wave of backlash from the Republicans’ MAGA base.
But Sanders is unlikely to join Young as one of those senators voting “yes”’ according to bettors on Polymarket, where traders can bet on individual legislators’ decisions. A “Yes” share for the Vermont senator’s vote is going for just over 16 cents as of Tuesday afternoon.
Should Sanders reject Gabbard, it would erase her final tie to the progressive left, completing the former congresswoman’s rightward shift after running for president as a Democrat in 2020.
Gabbard emerged as a well-known but controversial figure in the progressive movement over the last decade, particularly after she resigned as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee in order to endorse Sanders for president in 2016.
After Hillary Clinton—Sanders’ opponent in that year’s Democratic primaries—suggested Gabbard was a “Russian asset” in a 2019 interview due in part to her perceived coziness with former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the Vermont senator rushed to her defense.
“Tulsi Gabbard has put her life on the line to defend this country,” he said in a post, referring to Gabbard’s Army tours in Iraq and Kuwait. “People can disagree on issues, but it is outrageous for anyone to suggest that Tulsi is a foreign asset.”
Perhaps because of those ties, traders on Polymarket have staked more than $1.2 million on Sanders’ confirmation decision, by far the most of any senator.
The next biggest market is for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) at just over $350,000. Bettors expect the former Republican leader to break from his party, giving him just an 8% chance of confirming Gabbard.
But traders have reason to be skeptical of Sanders’ support.
After dropping out of the 2020 primaries, Gabbard endorsed President Joe Biden rather than Sanders. She has since left the Democratic Party, registered as a Republican, became a favorite guest on right-wing outlets like Fox News, and endorsed President Donald Trump in 2024.
Sanders has said very little about his one-time backer since her rightward drift, and he has given no indication what his choice will be on her latest nomination.
But the occasional thorn in Trump’s side has also helped some of his nominees through, voting last month for Marco Rubio become Secretary of State.
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