We’re going to know a lot more tonight. But until Grange halls and gymnasiums fill with caucus-goers, we only have data from pollsters and social media to tell us what may happen during the Iowa caucuses. As it has done in the past, social media is reflecting polling data and this time around is showing a surge in support for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
According to Socialbackers.com, Santorum has had a 22 percent increase in “likes” on Facebook, a larger gain than any other GOP candidate in the last month. He ended December with more than 40,000 fans. Meanwhile on Twitter, he added more than 2,000 new followers on the first day of the new year, more than any other candidate, according to 2012twit.com.
Of course the Pennsylvania Republican has a long way to go before he can beat the likes of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, with more than 1,259,000 fans, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, with more than 672,000, but the surge in support could come at the perfect time for Santorum, just hours before the Iowa vote.
Since the beginning, voters have been looking for an alternative to Romney, who at one time was the obvious front runner. In the last six months, candidates like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have all risen and fallen in the polls, and on Facebook “likes” have recorded the progress the entire way. For example, Rick Perry ended Dec. 6 with 41 fewer fans than he started with, about the same time his most notorious campaign ad flopped on YouTube.
Santorum’s December Facebook surge reflects polling data from Real Clear Politics; according to average of polls on Dec. 1, the former senator was at 4 percent in the Hawkeye State. A month later, he was at 16 percent in Iowa, at least five points behind Romney and Paul, but most of that gain occurred during the few days following Christmas.
So does Facebook foreshadow any other surges? Although they are small gains, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman also had a good month on Facebook, increasing his likes by 18 percent, to end the month with more than 30,000 followers. The former governor and ambassador has been banking his hopes on the New Hampshire primary, but the surge could be too little, too late to make a difference, especially in state where Romney is polling more than 20 points ahead of any other candidate.
Photo by Gage Skidmore